GPT-5.5 Has a 3x Higher Hallucination Rate Than MIT-Licensed GLM-5.2

A new benchmark analysis from Arrow TSX is making the rounds on Hacker News, and the headline number is stark: GPT-5.5 has an 86% hallucination rate on the AA-Omniscience benchmark, versus 28% for Z.ai's MIT-licensed GLM-5.2.

That is a 3x difference in how often these models make up answers when they do not actually know.

What the Article Actually Says

The original piece is titled "Bigger models are not the way," and it uses hallucination data as evidence for a broader argument: that scaling up parameter counts is hitting diminishing returns.

Here are the raw hallucination rates from the AA-Omniscience benchmark:

The methodology works like this: when a model does not know the answer to a question, it can either admit that or make something up. The hallucination rate measures how often it makes something up instead of saying "I don't know."

The researchers tested models with a specific Python asyncio question that contains an architectural impossibility - there is no correct answer because the premise is flawed. They used a "high" reasoning effort setting, temperature 1, and the same system prompt across all models. Models were served on OpenRouter with FP8 precision.

DeepSeek V4 Pro spent 3 minutes 52 seconds reasoning (7.7k tokens) and still produced a "confidently incorrect" answer. GLM-5.2 finished in 12 seconds (799 tokens) and correctly identified that the question described an impossible scenario.

What Hacker News Is Saying

The discussion thread is active with 85+ comments, and the conversation is more nuanced than the headline.

Several commenters point out that hallucination rate is a conditional metric. It measures what happens when the model does not know - not the overall probability of encountering a hallucination in typical use. A model that knows more things would have fewer opportunities to hallucinate, even if its conditional hallucination rate is higher.

One commenter laid out the math: "If a model A has 50 correct answers, 20 incorrect answers, and 30 abstentions, its hallucination rate is 40%, while a model with 20 correct answers, 20 incorrect answers, and 60 abstentions has a hallucination rate of 25%, even though it hallucinated exactly the same number of times."

Others argue this framing is too generous to the larger models. If you ask a question the model cannot answer, the only correct response is "I don't know." Making up something plausible is still wrong, regardless of whether the model "knew" the answer somewhere in its weights.

The "you're prompting it wrong" counterargument showed up: one commenter suggested that a well-crafted system prompt explicitly telling the model that "I don't know" is a valid answer could change these numbers significantly. But another pushed back: "You're prompting it wrong is quickly becoming the new 'you're holding it wrong.'"

The thread also picked up on the article's bigger claim about scaling. If larger models and larger training sets have stopped producing proportional improvements, the S-curve thesis has real implications for how these companies are valued. One commenter noted: "That's huge news, considering the valuation of companies like OpenAI and xAI is largely based around the absurd idea of ever increasing scaling from these models."

Why This Matters for Developers

If you are building agents or workflows that rely on LLM outputs, these numbers translate directly into production reliability. An 86% hallucination rate when the model does not know means that roughly 9 out of 10 times you hit an edge case, you will get confident nonsense instead of a signal that you need to route elsewhere.

The practical takeaways:

Model selection is not just about raw capability. A model that is slightly less capable but much better calibrated - meaning it knows what it does not know - can be more useful in production than a model that is more capable but confidently wrong when it fails.

Open weights are winning on this metric. GLM-5.2's 28% rate is nearly half of Opus 4.8's 36% and a third of GPT-5.5's 86%. This is a meaningful differentiator when you can self-host or route to API providers serving open weights.

System prompt design matters more than we thought. If explicit instructions to admit uncertainty can move these numbers, then the agentic frameworks that bake in those instructions will have real reliability advantages.

The "bigger is better" assumption needs revisiting. The DeepSeek V4 Pro result is particularly striking: 1.6 trillion parameters, nearly 4 minutes of reasoning, and still a 94% hallucination rate. More compute did not help here.

For our model comparison content, see GLM-5.2 vs DeepSeek V4 vs Qwen3 and best AI coding tools for June 2026.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a hallucination rate?

On the AA-Omniscience benchmark, the hallucination rate measures how often a model makes up an answer instead of admitting it does not know. It is a conditional metric: it only counts cases where the model lacks the answer, so it is a measure of calibration, not overall accuracy.

Is GLM-5.2 really more reliable than GPT-5.5?

On this specific benchmark, yes: GLM-5.2 hallucinated 28% of the time it did not know an answer, versus 86% for GPT-5.5. That is a calibration result, not a blanket capability claim. GLM-5.2 is also MIT-licensed and open-weight, which is why you can self-host or route it cheaply. See where to run GLM-5.2 free and cheap.

Does a lower hallucination rate mean GLM-5.2 is the better coding model?

Not on its own. Calibration is one axis; raw coding capability, context length, and cost are others. For the full picture see GLM-5.2 vs DeepSeek V4 vs Qwen3 and the GLM-5.2 cost math.

Why does this challenge the "bigger is better" assumption?

DeepSeek V4 Pro, a much larger model, posted a 94% hallucination rate despite nearly four minutes of reasoning on the test question. More parameters and more compute did not improve calibration here, which is the core of the original article's argument that scaling is hitting diminishing returns.

Sources

• Original article: "Bigger models are not the way"
• Z.ai GLM-5.2 model card on Hugging Face
• GLM-5.2 on Artificial Analysis
• Hacker News discussion
• Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index (benchmark source referenced in article)